Germany was quick to announce a pause in asylum programs for Syrian nationals after the fall of dictator Bashar Assad on Dec. 8.
Just 36 hours after Syrian rebels declared they had liberated the capital, Damascus, the German government suspended decisions on more than 47,000 pending asylum programs for Syrians. Within hours, France, Britain, Italy and several countries followed suit.
These decisions generate greater nervousness among the more than 1. 5 million Syrians settled in Europe since the start of the civil war in 2011.
Particularly alarming were the words of Austrian Interior Minister Gerhard Karner, who asked his ministry to prepare a program for “an orderly repatriation and deportation. ” German politicians have made calls.
European governments appeared to be seizing the moment of Assad’s ouster to address growing public unease over high migration rates.
Even before the announced pause, at the end of October more than 108,000 Syrian asylum programs were ending in EU states, according to the European Union Asylum Agency (EUAA).
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These decisions stand in stark contrast to the welcoming attitudes seen at the height of the 2015-2016 European migration crisis. At that time, the Germans welcomed the Syrian refugees at exercise stations with bottles of water and food.
The announcements were even more unsettling given the ongoing chaos in Syria, where the leading rebel group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), is struggling to establish a caretaker government.
Compounding the situation was the apparent reversal of a key reason Europe wanted to welcome Syrian nationals. Beyond addressing humanitarian needs, politicians argued at the time that Syrians would help alleviate critical labor market shortages.
Anastasia Karatzas, a policy analyst at the Brussels-based European Policy Center (EPC) think tank, noted that the European Union had recently stepped up efforts to return more refugees to their home countries before Assad’s removal despite the huge demand for more workers.
“There is a pressing need across the EU to address labour shortages, but also to tackle labour exploitation, especially of abnormal migrant workers. But now there is a threat that the priority given to the return [of refugees] will overshadow those other priorities,” Karatzas told DW.
Integrating such a large number of refugees — 972,000 Syrians in Germany’s case — in such a short period was certainly challenging. However, Philipp Jaschke, a labor market researcher at the Nuremberg-based Institute for Employment Research (IAB), thinks Germany’s efforts “worked much better than expected.”
“[The refugees] left Syria suddenly. Many of them had traumatic experiences while escaping. When they arrived, they were largely unprepared for the German labor market, and there were many institutional barriers,” Jaschke told DW.
Those hurdles included lengthy delays for asylum decisions, learning German, completing studies and obtaining recognized qualifications before entering the workforce, which takes years. In the meantime, refugees’ job prospects are often limited to low-skilled positions.
IAB surveys suggest that back home, more than 90% of Syrians worked in occupations that require vocational training or a university degree in Germany. When they reached Germany, around a third initially worked in low-skilled jobs. Six years later, a quarter of them were still in these roles.
As of September 2024, approximately 287,000 Syrians were employed in Germany, a report by the IAB published on December 13 revealed. Their average employment rate has fallen as large numbers arrived more recently and are still in the early phase of the integration process.
But the longer refugees stay in Germany, the more likely they are to find a job. The IAB found that about 61% of Syrian refugees were hired seven years after their arrival.
Although Syria’s official unemployment rate of 37% is much higher than Germany’s, which was 5. 9% in November, cultural and other aspects have played a vital role. More Syrian women than men do not paint. Many have played classic family roles in their home country and are less likely to have past artistic experience. They are also more likely to be mothers of young children.
The EPC’s Karatzas said discrimination and “persistent difficulties with the recognition of skills and qualifications” were other issues, referring to Europe as a whole.
In Germany, almost 30% of female refugees work in the social and cultural service sectors, including education and child care. One in 10 works in retail. More than one-fifth of male refugees work in logistics or manufacturing. Syrians also have a meaningful presence in the hospitality, health care, and construction sectors, according to the IAB.
“These sectors have severe labor shortages,” Jaschke said, with a high demand for workers and a comparatively low labor supply. “So, Germany would really lose if these people left.”
As for how many would like to return now, a recent survey conducted through the IAB found that more than 90% of Syrian-born refugees who entered Germany between 2013 and 2019 said they wished to stay permanently. However, this may simply replace that due to the latest developments in Syria.
“Almost 40% have lived here since 2015 or more. They make a living here, they have created social networks, many have brought their families, so most likely many will stay,” Jaschke told DW.
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Those who have not joined Europe or who have not managed to find works of art in a moderate period of time will probably be forced to return or will want to return. Many others would likely be willing to help rebuild Syria’s economy after nearly 14 years of civil war. German conservative lawmaker Jens Spahn recently told broadcaster n-tv that they will receive help from the government to repatriate and spoke of a resettlement bonus of 1,000 euros ($1,055) based on the user and the use of government-chartered planes. .
As arguments continue to swirl over the issue, Frank Werneke warns against a large-scale repatriation effort. The head of Verdi, a German services union, hopes ministers will “approach the situation with a cool head.”
In an interview with the German news agency DPA, Werneke said it was important that Syria’s transitional government first assemble “the mostdemocratic conditions as possible,” considering the needs of the country’s many ethnic and religious groups.
At a European level, Karatzas is concerned that anti-migrant sentiment may prompt a knee-jerk reaction from many EU states and warned them against making hasty decisions.
“Policies need to be made to ensure returns take place in a well-managed way, based on evidence and data about their [refugees] contributions [to the labor market].”
Edited by: Uwe Hessler