Energy expenses are expected to pile up this summer, while freezing temperatures and a crisis of origin threaten to advance wholesale gas costs.
Experts warn price signals suggest the UK’s cost-of-living crisis is still hurting households despite hopes 2025 would see an end to high prices.
Dr. Jack Sharples, a senior member of the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies, explained how the wholesale fuel market has hardened in the midst of the Russian war in Ukraine and Europe, far from Russian fuel from other countries, adding states United, Norway and Azerbaijan.
He said that Europe loses 15 billion cubic meters (BCM) of fuel this year, which is equivalent to 4% of supply in 2024. This is enough to push the market market a bit tight even on a global market plate for a liquefied herbal fuel (LNG) that is already tight.
Experts said long-term costs are “very slightly” higher for the summer months of 2025 than for the winter of 2025-2026.
Britain and Europe are waiting for a wave of LNG to come on the market in late 2025, meaning growth in supplies should outstrip demand and bring prices back down but not for several months. But prices are tipped to remain elevated until then.
The valuables of customer gases in Britain are calculated from a long -term combination and ancient Worth. Dr. Sharple said the wait may also be worth it, but the dishes and possibly would not fall this summer.
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He warned that if there is a spell without blood in Europe or in East Asia, it reports a more serious winter without blood, the LNG will call to increase and increase costs again.
Dr Sharples said: “When the market is finely balanced and transfers any aspect of the scales, you get a much more visual response.
“If you offer to go through the 5%, you’re going to have to swoon in the global market and get more volumes. That’s why Worths is where they are right now. But we are far from the peaks of 2022222222222222
Danni Hewson, guilty of monetary investigation in AJ Bell, said fuel source reports show that the country has still emerged from the position of living crisis.
She said: “It’s worth noting that costs and garage titles anywhere near 2022 degrees, however, like a snap of blood lately, many of us push warming up for a few more hours, any indication that not everything is cause for concern. “
Mrs. Hewson added that while the United Kingdom is more renewable energy resources when it comes to electricity generation, heating our houses is an other problem.
Britain recently hit a major milestone as wind overtook gas to become the largest source of power for the first time in 2024.
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The expert said: “With wholesale prices going up it is likely to cause more pain for UK households in the months to come especially if this winter is a long cold one.
“Many other people expected 2025 to be the year when the crisis of the cost of living will bed forever, but there are small symptoms everywhere where they cost the game ball. “
A spokesman for the Department of Energy Security and Net Zero said: “We have no considerations and we are convinced that we will have a sufficient capacity for fuel and electric strength to meet this winter, due to our diversified and resistant force system.
“Our project to make Britain a blank Force Superforce will be to secure the UK force in long-term investment in its own local force and protect the facils. “
The Government insists that the degrees of fuel garage vary the winter and that the operators have evaluated that there will be enough granted to comply with the country’s call for this winter.
A recent legal security report of the offer offer concluded that Great Britain has enough electricity and fuel to meet the demands of consumers in the short and long term.
Before Russian President Vladimir Putin orders his troops to invade Ukraine, the country provided Europe about 30% of the continent pipes. After the invasion, there is a massive fall in the volume of Russia fuel, forcing the European market to be re -quilibly.
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The gas has passed the roof, Europe imported more LNG in the global market and consumers have limited their energy consumption as energy expenses have shot. Dr. Sharple said that the commercial sector of Europe has brought the weight of the energy crisis, the countries of Eastern Europe, such as Slovakia, Germany and Austria, among the maximums affected.
In 2021, Europe won 142 billion cubic meters (BCM) of fuel from Russia. By 2024, this had dropped to 30bcm. The fuel marketplace squeezed before Ukraine close down a pipeline wearing Russian fuel to Europe previous this month.
European gas stock levels remain “pretty healthy”, according to Dr Sharples, who said figures from Gas Infrastructure Europe this week showed storage levels at 69 percent.
He explained that garage capacity differs between the UK and Europe, with the continent storing the one of about 106 bcm at the onset of winter, compared to about 3 billion cubic meters.
In fact, the UK is a winter reserve, which is traditionally based on its own materials. The country is now “well connected” to materials from Europe and Norway, allowing the country to recharge when needed.
However, Dr. Sharple warned that the main factor is now the amount of fuel in the garage in the United Kingdom and Europe at the end of this winter. He said: “Everything we have eliminated from the garage to the end of March wishes to be replenished in the summer. “
He explained that analysts already anticipate the desire to buy more fuel this year until 2024, but this can charge more in the country given the scenario of wholesale prices.
Natural fuel futures joined above 125p consistent with THERM last week for the first time since October 2023. The value of the penalty returned to 121p on Tuesday amid forecasts of milder weather next week, according to Trading Economics.
It has placed a European fuel garage 70%, 85% less last year. The business economy said that this leaves the United Kingdom “vulnerable” to interruptions due to its “limited garage and dependence on European infrastructure. “
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