For the first time, Ukraine is launching more long-range drone attacks than Russia. Figures were released that Russia sent 426 Shahed-type drones to Ukraine in July. During the same period, Ukraine responded with more than 520 drones.
Russia appears less effective at taking down attackers, as Ukrainian measures appear to be causing greater economic damage to oil refineries and other targets. Ukraine can gain merit in strategic warfare through long-range drone movements, and President Zelensky promises to use more and more larger attack drones.
Russia exhausted the maximum of its reserves of long-range ballistic and cruise missiles in the first months of the war. And although production has increased since 2022, Russia appears to be firing missiles at roughly the rate at which it is produced, which is around 120 per month. Although missiles are due for their destructive effects, as demonstrated by a recent attack on a children’s hospital, much of Russia’s long-range strike force now lives in the form of drones. Its primary weapon is the Iranian-designed Shahed series, known in Russia as the Geran, is easy to produce and costs just $20,000, compared to a million or more for a missile.
Originally imported from Iran, Shahed are being produced under a licensing agreement in a giant new factory in Alabuga, east of Moscow. The design has been replaced in recent years, but the basic concepts remain the same: a propeller-driven drone. with a wingspan of eight feet cruising at around 110 mph and with a warhead of just over a hundred pounds. Aside from its low cost, Shahed’s main merit is its range, which extends more than a thousand miles and in all likelihood as many as two thousand.
Russia fires waves of up to thirty Shaheds at a time. These are captured through the thousands of networked Ukrainian microphones that pay attention to the unique sound of the drone’s “lawnmower” motor, and in the hours it takes to achieve success. targets, anti-drone cell groups equipped with heavy weapons and automatic cannons move. Many Shaheds are also shot down by surface-to-air missiles, while others are derailed or knocked to the ground by traditional electronic warfare systems.
There are a few other long-range Russian attack drones, but for now the vast majority of incoming drones are of the Shahed type, all are currently Shahed.
Ukraine rarely claims to have killed 90% of the new Shahed and 100%. There is no way to verify this and it is clear that the Shahed are still causing damage, but the risk does not seem to increase. Although there were warnings that Shahed’s output would rise sharply this year as the Alabuga factory ramped up output, the numbers remained relatively stable. Shahed Tracker, analyst in June. Matrix The total for July was 426.
Shahed attacks throughout the month, knowledge of Shahed tracker
In response, Ukraine has developed a wide diversity of highly diverse attack drones: analyst HI Sutton knows of up to 22 other models, from switched light aircraft to custom-made jet attack drones. However, most are designed to be as simple and reasonable as and as effective as you can imagine no matter what looks like, like the Drainpipe Drone that was first observed in April. Some come from well-known sources, basically Ukrainian startups and teams raising budget for their projects, many are mysterious and only known from the rubble recovered in Russia.
In 2023, Ukraine was generating only “dozens” of Shahed-type drones per month, according to defense industry officials. The attacks, although high profile, were small scale. This has changed. Massive attacks are becoming more frequent, rarely accompanied by Storm Shadow moves or other missiles provided by Western Allies.
Everything we know about the Ukrainian drone attacks comes from Russian officials, because the Ukrainians don’t communicate about them. No framework in Russia publishes accounts as the Ukrainian Air Force does regarding Shahed and the missile attacks, however statements are issued through local governors and the military. Offices.
Over the past month, on July 5, the Russian Defense Ministry “confirmed that its forces destroyed 50 Ukrainian drones on Russian territory,” on July 9 there were 38, on July 11, 75, on July 18 it deployed 33 more last month. On the 20th there are 26 and on July 22 they shot down 80 drones. There were another 20 on the 27th, 41 on the 29th and 19 on the 31st, in addition to a smaller number on the other 11 days.
These Russian figures are shown and would possibly or may not constitute the total number of drones launched. While the claimed cull rate is even higher than that claimed through Ukraine, there is no sign of any sort of coordinated sensor and anti-drone network. weapons noticed in Ukraine.
Given those reservations, based on statements through Russian state bodies, Ukraine introduced more than 524 one-way attack drones in July, compared to less than two hundred in the last two months. This appears to be the first month that Ukraine’s total surpasses Russia’s.
There is little data on the targets of Russian drones; reports of power outages and electrical disruptions recommend that movements in Ukraine’s force infrastructure continue. Ukraine is believed to have lost about some of its 18-gigawatt capacity and there is a pressing plan to rebuild it. before winter.
Oil depot in Russia-occupied Crimea set ablaze by drone strike
The Ukrainian crusade has multiple fronts and pursues a variety of high-value objectives. One set of targets includes oil refineries and oil and fuel storage facilities. The hits produce stunning photographs and videos on social media, making it easy to confirm. The overall damage to the industry is difficult to assess, but it is increasing. Sanctions make it harder to repair refineries and Russia could be forced to raise costs or ration supplies.
The Russian army’s air bases are a second-rate target. The precise levels of Ukrainian attack drones are unknown, but a recent attack on Olenya airbase in Russia occurred more than 1,800 kilometers away. This kind of distance endangers a giant number of Russian bases. These movements are difficult to assess, as the only available data on the damage comes from satellite imagery that can unfortunately be confusing. Ukraine claims to have destroyed a Russian Su-30M at the Saky air base and wounded a Tu-22M bomber. in Olenya with tricycles on July 27, although it is very unlikely that these data will be confirmed.
Keep in mind that for any type of target, a small warhead from a drone can cause disproportionate damage. A single destroyed Russian fighter can pay several times the cost of the entire drone campaign. Some of the larger drones can carry much larger warheads, up to several hundred. kilos, putting a greater number of objectives at risk.
Electrical substations, cooled in Russia with flammable oil, are the target of Ukrainian drones.
On Twitter/X, Mick Ryan, a senior fellow for military studies at the Lowry Institute, notes that one of the purposes of Ukraine’s drone crusade is to create dilemmas for Russian military planners. Withdrawing air defenses from the front line may simply support air bases, but would send troops on air strikes. Focusing on air bases means that major oil depot facilities will burn at an ever-increasing rate. Changing protocols to allow defenders to open fire earlier may simply increase the already terrible rate of friendly fire incidents.
Ryan points out that, in addition to its economic and military effects, the drone crusade is a political weapon. Rising fuel costs and burning oil tanks are turning Russians into the real consequences of the invasion of Ukraine.
The important question is how many long-range attack drones Ukraine can produce and whether July is a failure or a trend.
When I spoke to drone brands Terminal Autonomy last December, they discussed plans to mass produce their AQ-400 Scythe. The wooden frame of the drone can be manufactured with the same conveniences used for cutting furniture into packages, and is easy to assemble by unskilled personnel. Job. They think they could make 500 drones per month until mid-2024, but that would have government support. Other drone brands that make the Bobr, Lyuty and others could have a capability, if they get enough funding. .
Simple but effective long-range drones can perform long-range precision movements and can be built in quantities.
In December, Oleksandr Kamyshin, Ukraine’s minister of strategic industries, said his goal was to produce 10,000 attack drones with a range of several hundred kilometers by 2024. That would equate to more than 830 per month.
And last week, in one of his nightly addresses, President Zelensky said, “We are preparing measures to increase the quantity and quality of our long-range drones. “
A month of increased drone movements probably wouldn’t make sense. Ukraine has not yet surpassed the total of six hundred Shahed introduced through Russia in March and December. But July may also mark a turning point in strategic drone warfare and the start of developing unrest. for Russia.
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