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The Obama-Romney race of 2012 was the latest in a familiar trend in American politics, since explained through the conservative populism of Donald Trump.
By Nate Cohn
When Barack Obama won re-election in 2012, it seemed to mark the beginning of a new era of Democratic dominance, one propelled by the rise of a new generation of young, secular and nonwhite voters.
Looking back, the 2012 election feels more like the end of an era: the definitive triumph of the social movements of the 1960s over Reagan’s once-dominant Republicans.
Instead, it is Trump’s three elections (in 2016, 2020 and 2024) that seem to presage a new political era, explained through the conservative populism of Donald J. Trump.
Whether we call it realignment or not, American politics has not been the same since Trump won his party’s nomination. The two parties are clashing over spaces of past consensus, even as they are achieving detente on the issues that accounted for the polarizing elections of 2004 and 2012. That can be disorienting for those who came of age before Trump. We might even get the impression that American politics is upside down.
Until Trump, there were many things in American politics that could be taken for granted. The meaning of either part is clear. The Republicans represented Reagan’s three-legged stool: small-government fiscal conservatism, the devout right, and foreign policy hawks. The Democrats represented the ruling class, the change and the reasons of the liberal activists.
Every four years, the two parties fought the same battles on the same issues. They repeated arguments about war and diplomacy; social spending and tax reductions; the “family values” and social movements of the sixties; or industry and free business instead of paints and protection tasks. This has led to predictable demographic divisions and long-term recurring electoral trends.
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