China’s demographics cast a shadow over President Xi Jinping’s ambitions for mid-century.
“Beijing’s political ambitions are based on exaggerated economic forecasts, which in turn are based on exaggerated demographic figures. The dire demographic outlook makes China’s economic and military goals tick,” Fuxian Yi, a researcher at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, told Newsweek. .
At the beginning of his first term, Xi set himself the goal of achieving the “wonderful rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” by 2049, the centenary of the People’s Republic of China. The country took wonderful steps toward this purpose over the next decade. Millions of others have escaped poverty, and Beijing has placed itself at the center of global finance and diplomacy.
But the world’s second-largest economy has experienced a bumpy post-pandemic recovery, weighed down by weak domestic demand, the ongoing housing market crisis and high levels of public debt. Economists say China now faces the specter of the middle-income trap.
China’s long-term economic prospects, like those of its neighbors Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, are threatened by its low birth rate and aging workforce.
Unlike the United States, where births are also below the replacement rate of 2. 1 children per woman, East Asian countries are still hesitant to fully open their doors to immigration to make up for a shortage of long-term hard work. And hundreds of billions of dollars invested in measures such as childcare and fertility treatments have failed to turn the tide.
Last year marked the seventh consecutive year of declining births and the second year in which more people died than were born.
The UN predicts that China’s population, now the world’s third-largest after India, will decline from 1. 4 billion to 1. 31 billion by 2050. Yi believes this forecast is too optimistic; It estimates that the population already stands at 1. 3 billion and that it will reach around 1 billion by mid-century, if its fertility rate manages to stabilize at 0. 8 expected births consistent with women.
At the same time, the proportion of Chinese over 65 and older will increase from around 15 percent to 35 percent by 2050, he said, putting pressure on public resources and affecting productivity.
China’s Foreign Ministry did not respond to Newsweek’s written request for comment.
Xi’s mid-century goals are to transform China’s armed forces, known as the People’s Liberation Army, into a “global-class” fighting force capable only of dominating its immediate region, but also of surpassing the United States around the world. the largest army in the world in numerical terms; The Chinese Navy owns most of the warships, its formidable rocket force is armed with nuclear warheads, and the Pentagon has already described it as the “greatest threat” to the United States this century.
However, unification with Taiwan, with force if necessary, is an integral component of “rejuvenating China. “The Chinese Communist Party in Beijing considers the democratic island an inseparable component of its territory, even though it has never ruled there.
Xi has reportedly set the year 2027 as the target at which Chinese forces will be able to take Taiwan. However, this would be disastrous not only for the other inhabitants of Taiwan, but also for the other inhabitants of the invading country.
Researcher Yi recently stated in The Diplomat magazine that a decline in Russia’s birth rate coincides with a slowdown in economic expansion following Western sanctions following the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Annual births fell from more than 1. 9 million in 2015 to 1. 4 million in 2021.
In Russia, births fell to 140,000 in 2023, a year after its leader, President Vladimir Putin, ordered the invasion of Ukraine.
If Beijing launches a war against Taiwan, there will be serious repercussions that, as in Russia, will have an effect on people’s resolve to have children, Yi wrote.
Even if China achieves a quick victory – which is far from a certainty – it will be hit hard by the West, and the consequences, coupled with lower demand for its exports and higher unemployment, will further weaken its birth rate and economic vitality.
“China is willing to face its genuine demographic crisis, carry out strategic contraction, relations with the United States and work with the United States to maintain the existing external order, which is beneficial to China and the West,” Yi said.
Micah McCartney is a reporter for Newsweek Taiwan based in Taipei. It covers U. S. -China relations, security issues in East and Southeast Asia, and China-Taiwan ties. Send tips or suggestions to Micah at m. mccartney@newsweek. com.
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