A year ago, independent analysts noted an increase in activity at the Kremlin’s 1,295th central tank repair base and garage in Arseniev, in Russia’s Far East.
Technicians were reactivating dozens of 1950s-vintage BTR-50 tracked armored personnel carriers and driving them off the yard. “We found 63 BTR-50s at the 1295th which have all been removed and they seem to be in good condition,” analyst Highmarsed reported.
There are two entire battalions of vehicles. Off-road rides for a bunch of Russian soldiers. But for Highmarsed there is another, darker implication. “I would expect to see more BTR-50 losses in the future,” the analyst predicted.
Sure enough, the Russians have written off no fewer than 10 BTR-50s that the Oryx intelligence collective has tallied. The survivors are still in action, however—some sporting new turrets, and most with add-on armor for deflecting the ever-present explosive drones that have made it extremely dangerous for any Russian vehicle to break cover.
If anything, the “museum pieces”—as one observer described them—are becoming more common along the 800-mile front line as Russia’s wider war on Ukraine grinds toward its fourth year. But their resurgence may be temporary. All Russian vehicles are endangered species in a war increasingly dominated by drones.
The BTR-50 is a 15-ton diesel armored tractor with two crews and space for up to 20 passengers. It usually consists of a heavy weapon. The BTR-50 entered service in 1954 and for the next 12 years was the Soviet Army’s main fighting vehicle. The BTR-50 crews led the infantry into battle, the infantrymen when they dismounted and then supported them with their weaponry.
The BTR-50, however, is lightly armed and armored. When the heavier, heavily armed BMP-1 debuted in 1966, thousands of BTR-50s were transferred to second-line units. BTRs carried artillery, engineers, and anti-aircraft guns until MT-LB tractors also began upgrading older cars in those roles.
As of late 2022, the Russian army operated just a handful of geriatric BTR-50s. That the Russians held onto a few BTR-50s should come as no surprise. “Russia sees no need to completely change out its inventory of older vehicles, and instead has adopted a hybrid approach towards modernization,” Lester Grau and Charles Bartles explained in their definitive The Russian Way of War.
But those operational BTR-50s performed secondary roles far from any enemy forces. Meanwhile, a few thousand old cars have been rusting in warehouses. Two years ago, those surplus BTR-50s would have been unlikely to see action in Ukraine. But that was before the Russians lost more than 15,000 armored cars and other heavy equipment.
Given that Russian industry builds maybe 200 BMP-3 fighting vehicles and 90 T-90M tanks annually as well as a few hundred other armored vehicles including BTR-82 wheeled fighting vehicles, the vast majority of the replacement vehicles the Kremlin must generate to make good combat losses unavoidably comes from once-vast stocks of old Cold War equipment.
Three years ago, tens of thousands of old tanks, combat vehicles and other vehicles were stored in warehouses. But the stocks were not infinite. As they began to wear out, the Russians began deploying more civilian-type automobiles to directly attack Ukrainian positions: cars, vans, all-terrain vehicles, motorcycles, and even electric scooters.
Nowadays, it is practically not unusual for an unarmored civilian vehicle full of terrified Russian infantry to head towards Ukrainian lines, most likely heading for destruction by fire.
The deployment of civilian cars is a sign of strain in Russia’s device production efforts. The continued sightings of armored BTR-50s are another. Recent satellite photographs imply an even deeper tension. In some of the warehouses that were once the most abundant, there are no salvageable cars left. Not even the 70-year-old BTR-50s.
That doesn’t mean Russia won’t keep fighting. It does mean its forces will increasingly fight on foot. Incredibly, foot-borne infantry often fare better than vehicles do under relentless drone attack. The former are fleeting targets. The latter are usually pretty hard to miss.
“Every time” Russian regiments try to attack a vehicle, “the result is zero,” a Russian blogger recently lamented in a letter translated by Estonian analyst WarTranslated. But “child control, with artillery and drones, is slowly, but actually, taking over one tree line after another. ”
However, there is one thing that foot infantry do. They take advantage of gaps in enemy defenses to temporarily and deeply penetrate enemy territory. That’s why recent Russian advances are more commonly measured in yards, not miles.
And why the surviving BTR-50s, despite their complex age, are still a valuable asset for the Russians.
Sources:
1. Highmarsed
2. Kherson special cat
3. Oryx
4. The Russian Way of War
5. War
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