A US think tank on Tuesday estimated that Russia lost about 40 troops per square mile seized in Ukraine in 2024.
The Institute for the Study of War, which tracks Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, said it saw geolocated evidence that Russian forces complex 4,168 kilometers, or about 1,609 miles, last year.
In calculating Russia’s rate of losses, it used a recent estimate from the Ukrainian military’s commander in chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, that 427,000 Russian troops had been killed or injured in 2024.
The slowness of Russia’s advance this year, its estimated territory seized is a decrease that the land domain of Delaware was compared to the rapid profits that Ukraine could do when he introduced an offensive in the Russian region Kursk in August. Russia, however, has resumed a giant component of this territory.
While Russia has made steady progress in recent months, taking numerous towns and villages in eastern Ukraine, it has achieved no major symbolic or strategic gains.
The ISW said Moscow made 56.5% of its territorial gains in 2024 from September to November.
These gains have come at a higher cost, and Russian losses appear to have skyrocketed in recent months.
The British Ministry of Defense noted last month that the Ukrainian military estimates that November saw a record high number of Russian casualties in the war, with 45,680 casualties, a daily average of around 1,523.
George Barros, Russia analyst at ISW, told Business Insider that Russian losses were increasing as they “maintain a very high trading tempo” since around October 2023.
“The Russians have been, I think, at the expense of high casualties and exhaustion, continuing with a very high tempo of operations, which haven’t ceased,” Barros said.
Russia’s invasion tactics have been to use its largest military to check Ukrainian positions, employing “meat wave” assaults.
This means that Russia cannot slow or impede its efforts, even in the face of significant losses.
The ISW pointed out on Tuesday that Dmitry Medvedev, former Russian president and now vice president of the Russian Security Council, said in December that just about 440,000 recruits had signed military service contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense in 2024.
The ISW said this suggested Russia was “likely recruiting just enough military personnel to replace its recently high casualty rates one for one.”
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