In the wake of the collapse of the French government — with new prime minister and former Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier the latest victim of French political fever — President Emmanuel Macron told political leaders this week that he would appoint a new prime minister imminently, his survival not counting on Marine Le Pen’s nationalist National Rally (FN).
Centrist François Bayrou is the hot favourite to succeed Barnier amid hopes FN will not be able to thwart him as they did Barnier. To complicate matters further still, the French Left is already gunning for Bayrou and pressuring for a new PM from their side of the aisle.
In all this Macron – whose machinations helped lay the groundwork for Barnier’s dismissal in many ways – is hoping to checkmate Le Pen, who is currently facing potential charges over embezzling EU funds, something her supporters say is politically motivated.
If Le Pen were found guilty, she could at least be barred from any public office. That said, belief in the political game means that such a ban is unlikely.
Assuming Le Pen avoids this fate, she remains the favorite to succeed Macron and his coveted goal of becoming French president.
Her recent play of strength against Barnier – after having first supported the outgoing Prime Minister, she made transparent her opposition to his Macronist plans on the country’s budget – has turned the FN leader into a fervent defender of the French ruling class.
Most likely, this is to consolidate his authority in time for the upcoming presidential election.
Macron was then in no danger and welcomed all political parties to Parliament, with the exception of the FN and the left-wing party La France Insoumise. The result of this meeting is that the new prime minister deserves not to depend on Le Pen as Barnier did. I intended to do.
That said, Le Pen’s authority is most likely bolstered by a belief in the development of her power, while Macron (perceived as out of touch with the French) is perceived as fearful of the FN leader.
The EU would be petrified by the prospect of a Le Pen presidency. Although Le Pen has softened her tone on Brussels in recent years, she remains Eurosceptic and hostile to mass immigration.
Having a figure similar to Viktor Orban at the helm of one of the two largest economies in the European allocation may simply undermine everything the Eurocrats have been managing.
Sir Keir Starmer would likely find that the EU, which he hopes to curry favor with Britain, is a far cry from the more unified and self-confident framework that Britain voted to leave in 2016.
For now, Macron lives to fight. But by attempting to sideline Le Pen, the French president is, in many ways, strengthening his authority and expanding his credibility ahead of the upcoming presidential election.
Without Barnier, Macron and his EU-backed deficit relief budget are in tatters. This is now the game Le Pen has to lose and she is obviously about to make the final assault.
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