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The south of the country got 3 months of rain in two weeks. Global warming has made such floods twice as likely as before, scientists say.
By Raymond Zhong and Manuela Andreoni
Human-caused warming has doubled the chances that southern Brazil will experience excessive downpours of several days, like those that recently caused disastrous flooding, a team of scientists said on Monday. The deluges killed at least 172 other people and forced more than a million people from their homes.
Three months of rain fell in April and May over a two-week period in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul. After analyzing climate records, scientists estimated that the region had a 1% chance a year of receiving so much rain in such a short time. It was of time. In the colder climate of the 19th century, before large-scale greenhouse fuel emissions, such colossal rainfall was much rarer, the researchers said.
Southern Brazil is one of the rainiest regions in the country. As the planet warms, the spaces of maximum atmospheric tension that form on the Atlantic coast of South America become larger and longer-lasting. This pushes warmer, moister air south. where it can fall in the form of rain.
When the last rains arrived, Rio Grande do Sul was still recovering from floods that killed at least another 54 people more than expected last year. Three of the four largest floods ever recorded in the state capital, Porto Alegre, occurred in the past nine months. , said Regina Rodrigues, a professor of physical oceanography at the Federal University of Santa Catarina and one of the scientists who worked on the project.
“Although significant flooding has occurred in the state of Rio Grande do Sul in the past, it is becoming strong and widespread,” Dr. Rodrigues said at a press conference.
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